Professor John Curtice has suggested that we might be “understating the catastrophe” facing the Labour party.
A poll for the Guardian shows traditional Labour heartlands turning to SNP, which could win 45 of 59 Scottish Westminster seats. On analysis of that data, Prof Curtice has revealed Labour’s decline is sharpest in those supposedly heartland seats, where it previously beat the SNP by more than 25 points.
“We are prospectively looking at the collapse of citadels that have always been Labour since the 1920s,” said Curtice. “That will seem incredible to some in England, but to those of us who paid close attention to Alex Salmond’s 2011 landslide at Holyrood, it would merely be the next chapter in the political transformation of a nation.”
There’s a chart that predicts which seats SNP will win from Labour: Paisley and Renfrewshire North is one of them. Beating MP Jim Sheridan, who has a 15k majority, won’t be easy but knowing the support is out there for the SNP is encouraging. This seat is winnable, but we need a strong candidate for this campaign. I believe that candidate is me, and I hope you’ll support by voting for me in January.